Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -333 MAN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +4 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -12.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -9.7 (-5.7) | 127.2 (-13.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -8.5 (-4.5) | 126.8 (-12.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -8.6 (-4.6) | 128.0 (-14.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -9.9 (-5.9) | 125.0 (-11.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SPU 75 – 65 MAN |
| Feb 6, 2026 | SPU 80 – 75 MAN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MAN 84 – 83 SPU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | MAN 70 – 67 SPU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SPU 89 – 57 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 7-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.5 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#148) | -9.3 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#107) | -1.21 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#115) | -1.95 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#56) | 0.393 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 36.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.