Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UCD +320 UCSB -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +21 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -11.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-29.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -9.7 (-11.3) | 146.4 (-23.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -8.7 (-12.3) | 143.0 (-20.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -10.6 (-10.4) | 147.2 (-24.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -10.8 (-10.2) | 147.6 (-24.6) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCD 79 – 73 UCSB |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UCD 85 – 75 UCSB |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UCD 93 – 86 UCSB |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UCD 64 – 60 UCSB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCD 71 – 60 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-8 | 22-5 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 13-3 |
| Home | 4-3 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 63.6 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#249) | 8.4 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#237) | 1.09 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#260) | 1.26 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#230) | 0.564 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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