Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +163 UTA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -3.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (+11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.3 (+10.3) | 143.1 (+14.9) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.5 (+8.5) | 143.1 (+14.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -1.9 (+9.9) | 146.5 (+11.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -1.9 (+9.9) | 143.0 (+15.0) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UTA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ARST 83 – 79 UTA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARST 58 – 49 UTA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | ARST 75 – 70 UTA |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 64 – 56 ARST |
Game Analysis
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