Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | AKR -250 BALL +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +32 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -5.8 (+26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -6.5 (+25.5) | 148.2 (-32.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -5.0 (+27.0) | 148.0 (-32.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -6.6 (+25.4) | 149.3 (-33.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -6.6 (+25.4) | 148.9 (-32.9) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AKR 87 – 77 BALL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | AKR 87 – 82 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AKR 80 – 76 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 10-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-9 |
| Home | 9-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#117) | 0.3 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#123) | -0.51 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#127) | -0.46 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#98) | 0.496 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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