Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
| Money | VT +180 UVA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +14 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -3.8 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -1.3 (+15.3) | 129.3 (-13.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -0.9 (+14.9) | 124.9 (-8.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -0.1 (+14.1) | 128.6 (-12.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.5 (+14.5) | 129.1 (-13.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UVA 76 – 72 VT |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VT 95 – 85 UVA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UVA 73 – 70 VT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | VT 75 – 74 UVA |
| Feb 20, 2024 | VT 75 – 41 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-7 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 13-4 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 58.2 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#48) | 17.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#28) | 2.91 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#34) | 5.00 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#29) | 0.610 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 58.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 79.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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