Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ARST +175 UTA -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UTA -3.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.3 (+0.3) | 145.0 (-16.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -0.5 (-0.5) | 144.7 (-15.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -1.7 (+0.7) | 148.5 (-19.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -1.6 (+0.6) | 147.0 (-18.0) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | ARST 83 – 63 UTA |
| Dec 13, 2024 | ARST 83 – 79 UTA |
| Feb 19, 2022 | ARST 58 – 49 UTA |
| Jan 21, 2022 | ARST 75 – 70 UTA |
| Feb 27, 2021 | UTA 64 – 56 ARST |
Game Analysis
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