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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–9 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UNC Asheville
@
Winthrop
|
+14.1 | 154.1 | 88% | 80–84 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Valparaiso
|
-3.6 | 130.1 | 35% | 85–91 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Rutgers
|
+5.3 | 141.2 | 70% | 37–67 | ✓ |
Louisiana Tech
@
Southern Miss
|
-4.0 | 132.3 | 28% | 76–63 | ✓ |
UTEP
@
UTSA
|
-0.3 | 147.8 | 48% | 79–86 | ✗ |
TCU
@
Kansas
|
+11.7 | 137.7 | 87% | 51–59 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
SMU
|
+4.8 | 140.5 | 69% | 65–67 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
Murray State
|
+6.8 | 131.5 | 75% | 53–73 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Jacksonville State
|
+1.7 | 132.3 | 58% | 85–66 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
San Diego
|
-15.1 | 159.7 | 14% | 90–62 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Tulane
|
-13.4 | 127.9 | 14% | 83–60 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
San Diego State
|
+14.9 | 147.0 | 89% | 57–87 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+1.0 | 144.2 | 56% | 62–64 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
UT Martin
|
-4.7 | 150.0 | 29% | 41–51 | ✗ |
Belmont
@
Austin Peay
|
-8.7 | 151.7 | 21% | 81–76 | ✓ |
UAB
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-12.0 | 129.5 | 14% | 70–59 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Idaho
|
-13.5 | 144.1 | 15% | 81–56 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
San José State
|
-2.5 | 145.1 | 36% | 58–59 | ✗ |
Stanford
@
Arizona
|
+5.8 | 147.8 | 74% | 73–64 | ✗ |
California
@
Arizona State
|
+5.0 | 145.5 | 70% | 68–72 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
+6.7 | 130.0 | 73% | 62–64 | ✓ |
North Texas
@
Rice
|
-2.5 | 133.8 | 38% | 79–74 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Niagara
|
-3.1 | 142.9 | 36% | 77–67 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Youngstown State
|
-0.4 | 148.8 | 50% | 78–75 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Texas State
|
+4.1 | 132.8 | 69% | 62–60 | ✗ |
|
UNC Asheville
@
Winthrop
|
+13.7 | 153.8 | 88% | 57–55 | ✗ |
Milwaukee
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-2.3 | 144.7 | 41% | 68–73 | ✗ |
UIC
@
Northern Kentucky
|
+1.8 | 137.0 | 60% | 68–72 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
Presbyterian
|
-3.0 | 129.1 | 34% | 49–45 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Kennesaw State
|
-8.5 | 129.6 | 19% | 84–67 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
Charlotte
|
+7.4 | 139.9 | 79% | 55–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.