Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +28 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | GONZ -27.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -15.1 (-12.9) | 159.7 (-7.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -16.6 (-11.4) | 158.2 (-6.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -20.9 (-7.1) | 159.1 (-7.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -17.1 (-10.9) | 157.6 (-5.6) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | GONZ 99 – 93 USD |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GONZ 93 – 80 USD |
| Jan 21, 2024 | GONZ 105 – 63 USD |
| Jan 7, 2024 | GONZ 101 – 74 USD |
| Feb 24, 2023 | GONZ 97 – 72 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-11 | 31-1 |
| Conference | 2-7 | 15-0 |
| Home | 0-5 | 12-0 |
| Away | 3-5 | 7-0 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 12-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 91.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#267) | 24.0 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#237) | 5.28 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#240) | 7.42 (#1) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#230) | 0.679 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 54.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 60.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 19.7% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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