Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +230 BRAD -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +6 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -5.9 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (+51.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -3.6 (+9.6) | 130.1 (+45.9) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -4.7 (+10.7) | 130.5 (+45.5) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -3.8 (+9.8) | 132.4 (+43.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -3.6 (+9.6) | 131.7 (+44.3) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-18 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.3 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#246) | 3.4 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#260) | 0.04 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#243) | -0.28 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#264) | 0.516 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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