Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -163 MEM +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -5.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -4.8 (-2.8) | 140.5 (-8.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -4.0 (-2.0) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -5.0 (-3.0) | 143.6 (-11.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.0 (-3.0) | 140.5 (-8.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | SMU 106 – 79 MEM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MEM 62 – 59 SMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MEM 81 – 62 SMU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MEM 99 – 84 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 70 – 63 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-6 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 7-4 | 11-4 |
| Home | 6-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#46) | 8.3 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#36) | 1.65 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#32) | 2.27 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#79) | 0.547 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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