Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | APSU +210 BEL -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +5 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | BEL -9.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -7.7 (+2.7) | 149.4 (+7.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -8.7 (+3.7) | 151.7 (+5.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -9.7 (+4.7) | 151.7 (+5.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -9.5 (+4.5) | 151.2 (+5.8) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2022 | BEL 72 – 58 APSU |
| Jan 28, 2022 | BEL 75 – 67 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 26-4 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 18-2 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 81.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#261) | 6.4 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#230) | 1.62 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#274) | 1.51 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#250) | 0.531 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 57.7% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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