Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -19.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -17.7 (-3.7) | 143.5 (-13.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -17.2 (-3.2) | 145.6 (-15.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -18.5 (-4.5) | 147.7 (-17.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -18.8 (-4.8) | 145.3 (-15.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2022 | BEL 75 – 67 APSU |
| Jan 29, 2021 | BEL 81 – 76 APSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 6-5 |
| Away | 10-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#37) | -5.9 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#46) | -1.40 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#52) | -1.70 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#40) | 0.443 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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