Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -275 UNM +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -9.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -6.7 (-4.7) | 130.0 (-4.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -6.7 (-4.7) | 127.0 (-1.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -7.3 (-5.3) | 129.2 (-3.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -7.9 (-5.9) | 129.3 (-3.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-15 |
| Home | 7-5 | 1-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#249) | -11.7 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#204) | -1.33 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#187) | -1.62 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#196) | 0.420 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 24.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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