Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -900 UNCA +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +4 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -12.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -14.1 (-10.1) | 154.1 (+9.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -10.7 (-6.7) | 150.1 (+13.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -12.7 (-8.7) | 153.8 (+10.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -13.6 (-9.6) | 153.4 (+10.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | WIN 84 – 71 UNCA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | WIN 69 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 86 – 67 UNCA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | WIN 103 – 90 UNCA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCA 93 – 84 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-2 | 10-10 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-4 |
| Away | 10-0 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#80) | -3.5 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#12) | -1.32 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.19 (#11) | -1.60 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#43) | 0.433 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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