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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–6 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penn State
@
Ohio State
|
+7.4 | 150.0 | 78% | 79–83 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Seton Hall
|
-0.0 | 149.3 | 51% | 85–81 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Notre Dame
|
-1.2 | 141.1 | 42% | 62–51 | ✓ |
Mercer
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+3.0 | 145.2 | 66% | 68–81 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Providence
|
+3.4 | 139.4 | 66% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
South Carolina
|
+2.1 | 158.0 | 65% | 59–83 | ✓ |
Western Carolina
@
VMI
|
+3.9 | 160.3 | 68% | 61–87 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Northwestern State
|
-0.3 | 148.5 | 47% | 73–81 | ✗ |
East Carolina
@
UCF
|
+7.4 | 129.9 | 76% | 64–71 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
NC State
|
+5.0 | 146.4 | 70% | 67–72 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Nicholls
|
+16.6 | 152.2 | 90% | 69–76 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Incarnate Word
|
+5.0 | 145.5 | 69% | 73–57 | ✗ |
Sam Houston
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-9.7 | 138.5 | 18% | 75–70 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Abilene Christian
|
+10.9 | 137.3 | 83% | 62–82 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Arkansas
|
+6.8 | 139.0 | 76% | 59–74 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Baylor
|
+21.4 | 140.7 | 91% | 59–107 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Maryland
|
+0.9 | 134.0 | 54% | 61–55 | ✗ |
Louisville
@
Clemson
|
+2.8 | 132.8 | 63% | 50–54 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Missouri State
|
-4.2 | 145.2 | 32% | 78–73 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
DePaul
|
+0.5 | 154.1 | 53% | 81–68 | ✗ |
Washington State
@
Colorado
|
+14.9 | 139.5 | 89% | 58–70 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Colorado State
|
-0.5 | 144.2 | 42% | 56–78 | ✗ |
Central Arkansas
@
SE Louisiana
|
-0.7 | 148.3 | 47% | 57–69 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
UNLV
|
-2.9 | 134.8 | 38% | 83–74 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Long Island University
|
+5.1 | 137.0 | 74% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
USC
|
+14.5 | 144.0 | 88% | 62–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.