Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -163 MISS +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -7.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.8 (+8.2) | 139.0 (-6.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -5.2 (+9.8) | 139.1 (-6.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.3 (+7.7) | 141.2 (-8.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -7.3 (+7.7) | 140.9 (-7.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | ARK 93 – 90 MISS |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARK 94 – 87 MISS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MISS 83 – 80 ARK |
| Jan 9, 2025 | MISS 73 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 25, 2024 | MISS 77 – 51 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 16-12 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#21) | 9.5 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#46) | 0.87 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#50) | 1.62 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#54) | 0.520 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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