Betting Lines
| Spread | UIW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UIW -110 HCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UIW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +16 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UIW -5.7 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIW -5.0 (-21.0) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIW -4.5 (-20.5) | 145.1 (-15.1) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIW -5.3 (-21.3) | 147.3 (-17.3) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIW -5.1 (-21.1) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-14 | 6-19 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 4-11 |
| Home | 5-7 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-6 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 81.1 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#298) | -12.3 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#325) | -3.84 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.86 (#334) | -5.26 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.392 (#319) | 0.357 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UIW | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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