Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | BAY -10000 KSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +48 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -28.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -21.4 (+26.6) | 140.7 (+25.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -21.2 (+26.8) | 137.1 (+28.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -29.1 (+18.9) | 140.6 (+25.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -27.2 (+20.8) | 143.4 (+22.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | KSU 90 – 74 BAY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | BAY 70 – 56 KSU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | BAY 70 – 62 KSU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | KSU 68 – 64 BAY |
| Feb 22, 2023 | KSU 75 – 65 BAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-2 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-0 | 6-12 |
| Away | 7-1 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.9 | 61.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#2) | -2.5 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.22 (#2) | -0.19 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.18 (#2) | -0.47 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#5) | 0.493 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | KSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 42.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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