Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +320 USU -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +9 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -6.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -2.9 (-6.1) | 134.8 (+22.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.9 (-5.1) | 132.9 (+24.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -3.1 (-5.9) | 135.2 (+21.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -3.5 (-5.5) | 134.7 (+22.3) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | 10.7 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#149) | 1.30 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#156) | 1.53 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#124) | 0.551 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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