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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–9 on winners
spread MAE 8.1
26 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma
@
Texas
|
+6.0 | 143.0 | 74% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Alabama
|
+12.1 | 144.0 | 87% | 59–70 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Tennessee
|
+10.9 | 135.1 | 86% | 53–56 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Memphis
|
+1.7 | 140.0 | 57% | 72–76 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Pittsburgh
|
+1.9 | 143.9 | 58% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Saint Francis
|
+9.4 | 145.6 | 84% | 94–92 | ✗ |
Toledo
@
Miami (OH)
|
-4.1 | 148.8 | 32% | 90–81 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Akron
|
+14.3 | 148.3 | 90% | 65–86 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Missouri State
|
-5.3 | 149.4 | 29% | 68–61 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Eastern Illinois
|
+3.5 | 146.2 | 64% | 87–74 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
Saint Louis
|
+12.0 | 139.4 | 87% | 76–71 | ✗ |
Butler
@
UConn
|
+9.8 | 128.9 | 84% | 51–63 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Auburn
|
+0.2 | 145.5 | 50% | 82–88 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
UT Martin
|
-5.7 | 147.1 | 26% | 66–69 | ✗ |
Georgia Tech
@
Duke
|
+0.5 | 147.2 | 51% | 68–75 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Texas A&M
|
-6.3 | 141.2 | 32% | 78–66 | ✓ |
BYU
@
Pepperdine
|
-7.4 | 143.3 | 26% | 73–76 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
Long Island University
|
+9.6 | 141.5 | 85% | 68–63 | ✗ |
Towson
@
James Madison
|
+6.6 | 145.9 | 75% | 63–78 | ✓ |
|
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Saint Francis
|
+9.8 | 148.2 | 84% | 82–90 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Kent State
|
+7.9 | 154.6 | 80% | 91–96 | ✓ |
Rhode Island
@
La Salle
|
-5.1 | 140.0 | 31% | 73–60 | ✓ |
Wofford
@
The Citadel
|
-5.8 | 157.1 | 28% | 69–77 | ✗ |
Miami
@
Florida State
|
+14.8 | 143.6 | 89% | 59–81 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Fordham
|
-6.9 | 122.0 | 24% | 86–62 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Florida
|
+15.2 | 150.4 | 89% | 71–78 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.