Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -225 GT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | GT -0.9 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -0.5 (+6.5) | 147.2 (-4.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -0.6 (+6.4) | 143.1 (-0.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -0.3 (+6.7) | 148.1 (-5.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -0.3 (+6.7) | 147.6 (-4.6) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DUKE 85 – 79 GT |
| Mar 13, 2025 | DUKE 78 – 70 GT |
| Dec 21, 2024 | DUKE 82 – 56 GT |
| Jan 13, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 79 GT |
| Dec 2, 2023 | GT 72 – 68 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-11 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-6 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#90) | 9.6 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#101) | 1.52 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#92) | 2.42 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#134) | 0.534 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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