Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | M-OH +188 TOL -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +9 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -6.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -4.1 (-4.9) | 148.8 (+22.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.1 (-4.9) | 148.4 (+22.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.9 (-5.1) | 150.4 (+20.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -3.8 (-5.2) | 151.2 (+19.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-11 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 15-4 |
| Home | 7-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#165) | 8.7 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#187) | 1.52 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#185) | 2.42 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#208) | 0.575 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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