Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -188 FDU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FDU +2 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -10.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+37.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -9.4 (-11.4) | 145.6 (+40.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -8.0 (-10.0) | 143.9 (+42.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -8.8 (-10.8) | 145.2 (+40.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -9.2 (-11.2) | 144.8 (+41.2) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | FDU 66 – 59 SFPA |
| Jan 4, 2026 | SFPA 85 – 82 FDU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | SFPA 85 – 80 FDU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFPA 75 – 71 FDU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FDU 93 – 74 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-16 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 78.8 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#203) | -10.5 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#174) | -1.83 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#163) | -2.34 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#128) | 0.379 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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