Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -600 MIA +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -16.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -14.8 (+7.2) | 143.6 (-3.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -13.7 (+8.3) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -15.5 (+6.5) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -14.6 (+7.4) | 143.5 (-3.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MIA 83 – 73 FSU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | FSU 65 – 63 MIA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | FSU 74 – 66 MIA |
| Jan 9, 2025 | FSU 80 – 65 MIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | FSU 83 – 75 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 4-15 |
| Home | 12-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-4 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#17) | 1.3 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.93 (#14) | 0.34 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#20) | 0.61 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#12) | 0.486 (#190) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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