Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -200 BTLR +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +12 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.8 (+2.2) | 128.9 (-14.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -9.5 (+2.5) | 126.4 (-12.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -9.9 (+2.1) | 128.6 (-14.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.1 (+1.9) | 129.2 (-15.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-8 | 10-15 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-3 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#36) | 2.9 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#54) | 0.77 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#42) | 1.35 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#57) | 0.495 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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