Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | PITT +163 UNC -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -0.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -1.9 (-11.9) | 143.9 (-3.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -0.6 (-10.6) | 143.3 (-3.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -1.3 (-11.3) | 145.0 (-5.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -1.4 (-11.4) | 143.9 (-3.9) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNC 79 – 65 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNC 67 – 66 PITT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PITT 73 – 65 UNC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UNC 72 – 65 PITT |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNC 70 – 57 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#58) | 11.0 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#66) | 1.97 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#67) | 2.71 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#99) | 0.594 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 43.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 15.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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