Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -125 SMU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -0.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -1.7 (+2.3) | 140.0 (+8.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -1.8 (+2.2) | 140.3 (+7.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -1.6 (+2.4) | 142.2 (+5.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -2.1 (+1.9) | 140.8 (+7.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2024 | SMU 106 – 79 MEM |
| Jan 7, 2024 | MEM 62 – 59 SMU |
| Mar 3, 2023 | MEM 81 – 62 SMU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | MEM 99 – 84 SMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | MEM 70 – 63 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 11-6 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 7-4 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-2 |
| Away | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#71) | 11.2 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#81) | 2.58 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#72) | 3.67 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#112) | 0.561 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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