Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UTM +210 SEMO -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -8.1 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -5.7 (+8.7) | 147.1 (-12.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -6.2 (+9.2) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -5.0 (+8.0) | 144.9 (-9.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -6.4 (+9.4) | 146.6 (-11.6) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-16 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -18.4 (#345) | -7.7 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#326) | -1.96 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.70 (#332) | -2.32 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.391 (#319) | 0.391 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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