Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -800 VAN +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -17.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -15.2 (-8.2) | 150.4 (-1.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -13.3 (-6.3) | 147.4 (+1.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -15.2 (-8.2) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -15.8 (-8.8) | 149.6 (-0.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#24) | -0.5 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#46) | -0.56 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#45) | -0.41 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#30) | 0.445 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.