Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | DEP +110 SJU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -0.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -0.5 (-13.5) | 154.1 (-5.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -0.5 (-13.5) | 151.1 (-2.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -0.7 (-12.3) | 153.9 (-4.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -0.1 (-12.9) | 154.1 (-5.1) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SJU 68 – 56 DEP |
| Dec 17, 2025 | SJU 79 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 20, 2025 | SJU 82 – 58 DEP |
| Dec 17, 2024 | SJU 89 – 61 DEP |
| Mar 6, 2024 | SJU 104 – 77 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-14 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 10-9 |
| Home | 2-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#127) | 5.6 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#165) | 1.07 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#139) | 1.56 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#278) | 0.523 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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