Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -120 MARQ +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -3.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.4 (+5.6) | 139.4 (-4.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -2.6 (+6.4) | 135.8 (-0.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.7 (+5.3) | 136.6 (-1.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.6 (+5.4) | 138.4 (-3.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | MARQ 78 – 56 PROV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MARQ 105 – 104 PROV |
| Feb 26, 2025 | MARQ 82 – 52 PROV |
| Dec 31, 2024 | MARQ 78 – 50 PROV |
| Mar 16, 2024 | MARQ 79 – 68 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 8-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#73) | 7.1 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#60) | 1.46 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#63) | 1.86 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#69) | 0.538 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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