Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ND +110 VT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +11 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -2.4 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -1.2 (-9.8) | 141.1 (-28.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -1.3 (-9.7) | 138.2 (-25.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.8 (-9.2) | 140.1 (-27.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -0.6 (-10.4) | 140.9 (-27.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VT 89 – 76 ND |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VT 65 – 63 ND |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VT 82 – 76 ND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ND 74 – 66 VT |
| Mar 8, 2023 | VT 67 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 15-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-4 |
| Home | 6-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#99) | 10.3 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#117) | 2.41 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#100) | 2.97 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#154) | 0.600 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 20.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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