Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -200 MER +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -2.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -3.0 (+10.0) | 145.2 (+3.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -3.4 (+9.6) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -3.5 (+9.5) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -3.5 (+9.5) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | MER 95 – 77 UNCG |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MER 102 – 92 UNCG |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNCG 78 – 61 MER |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MER 79 – 78 UNCG |
| Feb 24, 2024 | MER 86 – 72 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#114) | 4.0 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#106) | 1.10 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#110) | 1.42 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#77) | 0.553 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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