Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -120 SFA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ACU -9.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -10.9 (+9.1) | 137.3 (+6.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -10.2 (+9.8) | 136.3 (+7.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -14.6 (+5.4) | 140.5 (+3.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -11.3 (+8.7) | 138.3 (+5.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-5 | 16-5 |
| Conference | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Home | 13-0 | 10-1 |
| Away | 5-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#75) | 0.5 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#100) | -0.84 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#92) | -1.74 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#142) | 0.464 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 53.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 24.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 33.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.2% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.6% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.