Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -225 ECU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +7 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -7.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -7.4 (-0.4) | 129.9 (+5.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -4.7 (+2.3) | 128.3 (+6.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -6.2 (+0.8) | 130.2 (+4.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -7.1 (-0.1) | 129.8 (+5.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | UCF 84 – 58 ECU |
| Jan 5, 2023 | UCF 64 – 61 ECU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | UCF 69 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 19, 2022 | UCF 92 – 85 ECU |
| Mar 12, 2021 | UCF 72 – 62 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-12 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-10 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#97) | 0.1 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#76) | 0.65 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#65) | 0.84 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#81) | 0.537 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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