Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -333 WAKE +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -4.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -5.0 (-0.0) | 146.4 (-7.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.2 (+1.8) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -5.3 (-0.3) | 144.4 (-5.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -4.6 (+0.4) | 147.4 (-8.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NCSU 96 – 78 WAKE |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 57 WAKE |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NCSU 85 – 73 WAKE |
| Jan 4, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 59 NCSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#76) | 6.1 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#126) | 0.13 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#115) | -0.09 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#164) | 0.479 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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