Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU +210 AF -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +1 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | AF -4.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -2.5 (+3.5) | 145.1 (-28.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -1.4 (+2.4) | 135.2 (-18.2) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -2.2 (+3.2) | 140.2 (-23.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -1.9 (+2.9) | 142.3 (-25.3) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | SJSU 86 – 80 AF |
| Jan 14, 2026 | SJSU 70 – 62 AF |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJSU 75 – 64 AF |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SJSU 69 – 62 AF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | SJSU 73 – 66 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 5-20 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 3-17 |
| Home | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Away | 0-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 58.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -17.9 (#344) | -10.7 (#315) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#321) | -0.37 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#304) | -1.04 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#321) | 0.478 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 23.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 3.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 14.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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