Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU +500 UAB -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UAB -16.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -12.0 (+1.0) | 129.5 (-0.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -10.4 (-0.6) | 129.9 (-0.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -11.9 (+0.9) | 134.0 (-5.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -11.8 (+0.8) | 131.4 (-2.4) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 61 UAB |
| Dec 1, 2024 | MTSU 76 – 69 UAB |
| Nov 22, 2023 | UAB 58 – 57 MTSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | UAB 92 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 17, 2023 | MTSU 74 – 73 UAB |
Game Analysis
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