Betting Lines
| Spread | UNF -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UNF -125 UNA +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -0.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -0.2 (+10.2) | 142.0 (+12.0) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -0.1 (+10.1) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -0.4 (+10.4) | 143.7 (+10.3) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNF -0.2 (+9.8) | 142.5 (+11.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNF 105 – 91 UNA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNA 83 – 70 UNF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNA 90 – 84 UNF |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNA 79 – 74 UNF |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UNA 91 – 78 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-15 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 6-6 | 7-8 |
| Home | 5-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#291) | -5.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#282) | -0.87 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#273) | -1.18 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#257) | 0.432 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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