Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | TROY +188 APP -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +9 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | APP -4.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.0 (+11.0) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -2.0 (+11.0) | 133.1 (-0.1) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -1.9 (+10.9) | 133.8 (-0.8) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -1.9 (+10.9) | 136.8 (-3.8) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
Game Analysis
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