Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | OKST -110 ARK +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -1.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -3.2 (+0.8) | 152.7 (+5.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -1.6 (+2.4) | 153.8 (+4.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -2.4 (+1.6) | 156.2 (+1.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -2.5 (+1.5) | 152.5 (+5.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OKST | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-4 |
| Home | 10-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#51) | 14.9 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#18) | 2.11 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.06 (#12) | 2.69 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#40) | 0.587 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OKST | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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