Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PV -333 AAMU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +22 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | PV -1.9 (+20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -2.3 (+19.7) | 139.9 (-3.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -4.1 (+17.9) | 138.2 (-2.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -3.0 (+19.0) | 141.8 (-5.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -2.4 (+19.6) | 139.4 (-3.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PV 74 – 55 AAMU |
| Jan 27, 2026 | AAMU 80 – 60 PV |
| Jan 28, 2025 | AAMU 98 – 82 PV |
| Jan 30, 2024 | PV 87 – 76 AAMU |
| Jan 24, 2023 | AAMU 67 – 59 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 6-9 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 4-9 |
| Home | 8-0 | 5-2 |
| Away | 5-3 | 1-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#225) | -2.9 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#174) | 2.00 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#209) | 2.44 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#191) | 0.555 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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