Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PV -333 AAMU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | PV -9.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -7.5 (+3.5) | 147.4 (+15.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -6.7 (+4.3) | 144.8 (+18.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -7.5 (+3.5) | 145.3 (+17.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -7.1 (+3.9) | 145.5 (+17.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PV 74 – 55 AAMU |
| Jan 27, 2026 | AAMU 80 – 60 PV |
| Jan 28, 2025 | AAMU 98 – 82 PV |
| Jan 24, 2023 | AAMU 67 – 59 PV |
| Jan 25, 2022 | PV 72 – 48 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-15 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -9.2 (#313) | -14.8 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#257) | -2.25 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#259) | -3.41 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#276) | 0.392 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 33.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.1% | 35.5% |
Game Analysis
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