Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PV -142 AAMU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +20 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | PV -3.0 (-23.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -0.7 (-20.7) | 148.3 (-8.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -2.3 (-22.3) | 145.7 (-5.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -1.1 (-21.1) | 144.8 (-4.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PV -1.2 (-21.2) | 146.0 (-6.0) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | PV 74 – 55 AAMU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | AAMU 98 – 82 PV |
| Jan 30, 2024 | PV 87 – 76 AAMU |
| Jan 24, 2023 | AAMU 67 – 59 PV |
| Jan 25, 2022 | PV 72 – 48 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#324) | -11.1 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#321) | -1.32 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#318) | -1.78 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#338) | 0.420 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 62.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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