Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -200 NMSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -11.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -10.6 (-2.6) | 133.0 (-1.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -14.3 (-6.3) | 135.7 (-3.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -14.3 (-6.3) | 131.3 (+0.7) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | GCU 78 – 67 NMSU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | NMSU 75 – 70 GCU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | NMSU 82 – 66 GCU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | NMSU 71 – 61 GCU |
| Mar 14, 2021 | GCU 74 – 56 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 7-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 3-2 |
| Away | 5-1 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#109) | -4.9 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#171) | -1.70 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#148) | -2.53 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#198) | 0.274 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 31.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 37.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 37.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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