Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +150 TLSA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +9 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -2.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -0.2 (-8.8) | 129.1 (+15.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -0.4 (-8.6) | 129.2 (+15.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -0.2 (-8.8) | 130.3 (+14.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -0.4 (-8.6) | 131.1 (+13.9) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | TLSA 93 – 66 ECU |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ECU 85 – 76 TLSA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | ECU 84 – 79 TLSA |
| Jan 7, 2024 | ECU 62 – 57 TLSA |
| Feb 22, 2023 | ECU 62 – 60 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 2-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 1-4 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#159) | 4.7 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#134) | 1.76 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#131) | 1.87 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#138) | 0.537 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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