Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -188 W&M +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +10 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -3.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -2.5 (-12.5) | 141.2 (+16.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -2.5 (-12.5) | 137.6 (+20.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -2.7 (-12.7) | 139.6 (+18.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -2.6 (-12.6) | 140.7 (+17.3) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2025 | W&M 84 – 70 TOW |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TOW 88 – 73 W&M |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TOW 67 – 56 W&M |
| Feb 16, 2024 | TOW 61 – 52 W&M |
| Feb 14, 2023 | W&M 68 – 66 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 4-6 |
| Home | 4-4 | 1-3 |
| Away | 0-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#265) | -6.7 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#241) | -0.83 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#244) | -1.54 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#253) | 0.473 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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