Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT -142 FAMU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCAT +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | FAMU -4.1 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAMU -1.5 (+13.5) | 148.0 (-20.0) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAMU -0.7 (+12.7) | 143.9 (-15.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAMU -1.3 (+13.3) | 148.2 (-20.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAMU -2.2 (+14.2) | 149.6 (-21.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2021 | NCAT 70 – 63 FAMU |
| Feb 20, 2021 | FAMU 71 – 57 NCAT |
| Jan 31, 2021 | NCAT 67 – 65 FAMU |
Game Analysis
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