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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–18 on winners spread MAE 9.2 58 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oregon State @ UCLA +12.4 143.9 88% 52–57 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly -0.8 143.3 45% 64–51 ✓
New Mexico @ Fresno State +5.4 129.3 71% 55–65 ✓
Bryant @ Fairleigh Dickinson -9.8 160.7 18% 79–81 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Duquesne +9.0 146.0 83% 50–67 ✓
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +0.7 158.1 56% 82–75 ✗
Green Bay @ Cleveland State +5.5 137.2 73% 65–73 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.0 133.7 54% 77–66 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +7.3 149.8 78% 59–76 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -11.5 141.6 16% 89–86 ✓
Minnesota @ Purdue +2.8 138.9 64% 62–81 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +7.2 148.0 79% 59–62 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine -15.0 164.8 16% 97–75 ✓
Creighton @ DePaul -8.4 146.3 21% 69–62 ✓
Stanford @ Arizona State -3.3 146.3 35% 75–79 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +8.7 125.0 81% 54–68 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City -1.1 129.2 41% 47–49 ✗
Omaha @ South Dakota +12.6 144.5 88% 93–97 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Valley +7.7 145.2 80% 70–62 ✗
Western Illinois @ North Dakota +4.7 144.9 68% 99–87 ✗
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt -2.4 150.1 41% 81–93 ✗
Belmont @ Murray State -4.7 148.9 29% 72–71 ✓
Alabama State @ Texas Southern +11.5 134.1 86% 73–80 ✓
UTSA @ UTEP +4.7 148.5 69% 51–69 ✓
New Mexico State @ Grand Canyon +11.7 131.9 85% 53–65 ✓
Utah Tech @ California Baptist +11.2 151.2 87% 79–75 ✗
Wyoming @ San Diego State +15.6 146.6 89% 71–98 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Bakersfield +7.1 138.0 78% 73–83 ✓
UC Irvine @ Hawai'i -0.7 134.3 45% 61–62 ✗
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh +6.0 143.7 73% 84–58 ✗
Tulane @ Temple +6.9 130.1 78% 81–64 ✗
SMU @ Houston +11.7 137.3 84% 48–70 ✓
Michigan State @ Ohio State +11.1 145.3 87% 62–79 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +0.8 142.0 54% 75–74 ✗
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington +0.8 144.9 53% 89–83 ✗
Drexel @ James Madison +1.9 139.6 61% 64–73 ✓
New Hampshire @ Binghamton -3.0 137.1 35% 71–65 ✓
UMBC @ NJIT -2.5 134.7 36% 65–69 ✗
Hartford @ Stony Brook +0.4 129.7 50% 49–63 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +3.8 127.9 67% 64–76 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +5.9 145.6 71% 68–92 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +6.2 128.2 76% 70–75 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +6.5 147.7 77% 60–68 ✓
Siena @ Marist -2.6 127.6 39% 63–50 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State -2.1 138.1 40% 72–46 ✓
Illinois State @ Drake +19.3 144.1 91% 76–78 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ UAB +18.7 132.1 91% 52–63 ✓
St. John's @ Marquette +2.8 148.8 62% 75–73 ✗
Florida A&M @ North Carolina A&T +0.8 143.5 49% 65–67 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +11.1 136.1 82% 53–79 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville +0.2 132.9 52% 52–70 ✓
Bradley @ Indiana State +2.9 132.1 67% 57–60 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +7.1 145.4 78% 85–77 ✗
Bryant @ Fairleigh Dickinson -9.5 160.0 18% 84–95 ✗
Sam Houston @ Stephen F. Austin +1.5 150.7 57% 68–78 ✓
Colgate @ Holy Cross -10.6 153.2 17% 78–60 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois +0.5 141.9 56% 68–71 ✓
NC State @ Syracuse +6.5 149.6 75% 73–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.