Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | HAW +160 UCI -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +1 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -1.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -0.7 (+1.7) | 134.3 (-11.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -1.0 (+2.0) | 129.5 (-6.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -0.4 (+1.4) | 132.6 (-9.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -0.9 (+1.9) | 133.4 (-10.4) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | HAW 71 – 64 UCI |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UCI 87 – 76 HAW |
| Jan 11, 2026 | HAW 67 – 66 UCI |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCI 66 – 49 HAW |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCI 71 – 55 HAW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-10 | 18-9 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#151) | 4.4 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#233) | 0.95 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#196) | 1.08 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#215) | 0.547 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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